It seems that every single diary includes tired old themes, arguments, and general things that have gotten annoying. Not to say that all or even most diaries/comments fall into this category, but in every diary, it seems they are present. Some things I will be happy to never read again...
While each candidate's partisans are focusing on individual states, delegate math, momentum, and each's path to the nomination, I think there is a broader discussion to be had over the worst case scenario for all Democrats. Prior to the PA primary, I remember reading through a thread (can't find which one), where a response predicted that Hillary would win by 8-10 because that was the result that, arguably, would not change the dynamic of the race. The prediction was true on both accounts; Sen. Clinton won by 9, and maintained her argument for momentum and Sen. Obama's inability to "close the deal." The win was not large enough, however, to change the "math" and pick up a significant net gain in delegates.
My worry is that, what if this scenario continues. Exact numbers aren't really pertinent (and each side would likely quibble with which states assigned to each), but a scenario likely exists where Sen. Clinton wins a majority of the states left to vote, and keeps the margins close in others (North Carolina, Oregon), which, coupled with a strong showing in the remaining superdelegates, could lead to a chaotic situation.
This scenario would get worse if the campaigns compromise on the Florida and Michigan situation, and Sen. Clinton picks up a measurable gain in delegates. The scenario doesn't have to be a "perfect storm" for several reasons.
(1) Nothing can force Super Delegates to endorse before the convention. If a significant number decide not to endorce (for fear of alienating various constituents, or just out of an inability to decide), then there is a change neither can reach the magic number (2024, or whatever it ends up being).
(2) What happens if Sen. Obama passes the "magic number" by 1 delegate...by 5...by 10? Sen. Clinton has said before (correctly) that theres no such thing as a pledged delegate. Many delegates, especially super delegates, can (and have) changed their minds. Is Sen. Clinton going to conceed if she only has to convince one person to change their vote?
This brings my to my doomesday scenario? If we have to go to the convention and literally do not know who is our nominee, what is the options for running an effective campaign? Do both candidates set aside their differences and create the much discussed unity ticket (with the problem of who gets the top slot)? Do the candidates agree to a cease fire until the convention and direct their efforts toward McCain? Does Howard Dean have the influence to force uncommitted superdelegates to endorse? Do we, as democrats, donate to the DNC/527s so we can focus our efforts on Nov? Can we survive the attack of "Democrats shouldn't be allowed to run the country; they can't even run their own party?"
· VIDEO: McCain Denies Economics Comments, DNC Releases Web Video Proving Otherwise (Matt Ortega)
· MN-Sen: Norm Coleman's record on education (MN Campaign Report)
· Liveblog: Obama in Colorado Springs (em dash)
· Pelosi Heads To Netroots Nation (Josh Orton)
· Moveon to make July 9 a "Day of Action for an Oil-Free President" (desmoinesdem)
· WA-8: Burner Loses Home to Fire (Sandwich Repairman)
· MN-Sen: Ethics Complaint Filed Against Republican Norm Coleman (Senate Guru)
· Richardson says Clinton would be a strong running mate (fbihop)
· NM-01: Heinrich Raises Nearly $100,000 on ActBlue (fbihop)
· MS-03 Outgoing Congressman Pickering Files For Divorce (cottonmouthblog)
· McCain Confuses Sudan and Somalia (Josh Orton)
· KY-02: SUSA- Boswell (D) 47, Guthrie (R) 44 (MediaCzech)